SOTC Update: Baylor Bears

Dave Aranda saved his job with a bounce back in 2024. They hit the portal hard to bring in more defensive reinforcements, as the offense is coming back mainly intact. Next goal: Big XII Championship.

Mar 10, 2025

State of the Chart™ Recap Edition

Live All-In Ranking: 32nd
Offense: 20th
Defense: 58th
2024 Results: 8-5 (6-4 in Big 12)

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|||||| STATE OF THE CHART™ SUMMARY

Dave Aranda was at a crossroads following a dismal 2023 campaign. He knew he needed to take drastic measures to keep his job in Waco. He took on the responsibility of the defense and needed to find an offensive mind to get that side of the ball back on track. It wasn’t looking particularly great after a 2-4 start and heading into the week seven bye with six more Big XII matchups sure to provide some challenges. That’s when the boys stepped up. They won all six of those games, four of which they were underdogs. The move to Jake Spavital as offensive coordinator proved to be a good hire. They lost their starting quarterback — Toledo transfer Dequan Finn — for the season in week two. No problem. Sawyer Robertson took hold of the job, leading this offense to a top-20-25 level in 2024. The defense was also improved under Aranda, but more is to be desired. They focused on supplementing the talent level on that side of the ball in the portal, and now it’s up to Aranda and the staff to mold them into something — well, more than they were in 2024. That will need to happen as the schedule stiffens, and in the current Big XII, just about every game will present challenges. Aranda saved his job for now, but we all know the expectations in Waco never relent and there needs to be further improvement in 2025.

|||||| HEAD COACH AND COACHING STAFF

Dave Aranda needed results in 2024 after things derailed in Waco in 2023. He took the defense under his purview in an attempt to stop the bleeding. It worked. After a slow start, they finished with eight wins, including a six-game winning streak through the Big 12 schedule. While his defense improved, the offense and special teams won those games. Things are back on track and Aranda saved his job -- for now. As we all know, every year there is a new barometer and at Baylor, this bar is set high.

Coaching Staff Notes/Changes:

Aranda hired Offensive coordinator Jake Spavital from Cal in the off-season and he did a great job getting this offense going again. It worked. Led by quarterback Sawyer Robinson, this went to new heights under Spavital.
After an overhaul of the staff last off-season, it appears that they will be getting some continuity as most of the staff returns for 2025. Aranda did dismiss two defensive staff members as outside linebackers coach Caleb Collins and cornerbacks coach Kevin Curtis were let go.
- He replaced Curtis with long-time TCU secondary coach Paul Gonzales. After joining the TCU staff back in 2012 as a graduate assistant, he get an on-field job coaching cornerbacks in 2015 and shifted to safeties. He’ll add pass game coordinator to his role in Waco.

Note: This is a “dynamic” article; meaning we will update any information that comes in this “off-season” and post a note when impactful moves are made or news breaks.

|||||| 2024 SCHEDULE / RESULTS ANALYSIS

This schedule was no cakewalk. After the first three games, the defense looked good against some perilous offenses, especially Air Force. Then came Colorado, BYU, and Iowa State, putting up 34+ each before the bye. Things again looked bleak after a 2-4 start. After that week seven bye week, they rattled off six straight Big 12 wins, with five considered ‘deserved wins’ according to post-game win expectancy (PGWE) numbers. The only toss-up was against rival TCU, which went their way in week ten. They dropped the bowl game to LSU, but overall, this was a much-needed shot in the arm for the Bears program reeling this time a year ago.

||||||| POSITION GROUP CHECK-INS

OFFENSE: This turn around was authored by new offensive coordinator Jake Spavital and was engineered by quarterback Sawyer Robertson. They finished in the top 25 of most statistical measures, including that 34.4 points per game mark that landed 19th in FBS. They did it with balanced attack that kept defenses guessing. They were efficient in both the run and pass games and added explosion in the run game. It was all made possible by a really good offensive line, which finished fourth in FBS in fewest tackles for loss allowed gave up just 19 sacks (36th). They also cashed in 81% of their drives with touchdowns. They ran fast too, with a play run every 23.7 seconds (16th fastest). They were also aggressive on fourth down, going for it 37 times, converting on 20 of those opportunities (54.1%). Robertson took the job when Dequan Finn — who transferred in from Toledo —suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in week two. Robertson seized the opportunity and managed 8.2 yards per attempt (22nd). Robertson is returning and is clearly cut out for this job. That really good offensive line is bringing back four starters and should continue to lay the foundation for success on offense for the Bears.

||| QB

Dequan Finn was the prized recruit that was going to save this offense. He had done it at Toledo and was expected to repeat for the Bears. That plan went away when he was hurt for the season in week two. In stepped Sawyer Robertson, who had been waiting for his shot. He took full advantage and established himself as the starter here. He returns and Finn got a medical waiver, heading back to the G5 with Miami (OH). Walker White comes in from Auburn to compete for a backup spot.

||| RB

Redshirt freshman Bryson Washington emerged as the lead back here and really impressed, running for over 1,000 yards and 12 scores. He will return, along with backup Dawson Pendergrass. The two many believed would be the dynamic duo — Richard Reese and Dominic Richardson — feel down the depth chart and both are transferring out. Joseph Dodds is the only other returner and they have two 4-star recruits in the ‘25 class joining the room.

||| WR

This group had four solid contributors, giving Robertson plenty of options without having to force-feed anybody in particular. Josh Cameron led the group with 75 targets (52 catches), and the next three all had similar outputs — Hal Presley, Ashtyn Hawkins, and Monaray Baldwin. Cameron and Hawkins appear set to return, and they bring in Kobe Prentice from Alabama to take on Baldwin’s slot role, with Kole Wilson from Texas State as another option. They will remain deep and impactful.

||| TE

Michael Trigg came over from Ole Miss (via USC) and was the leader here with 30 catches. The former 4-star found his niche and developed a solid rapport with Robertson. He is not much of a blocker; that was more of a responsibility of Gavin Yates. Trigg returns as the receiver of the group, and Matthew Klopfenstein will take Yates’ spot, who is out of eligibility. All good here.

||| OL

Gold star to this group who all gelled well together and became a unit to be reckoned with. They will lose just one starter, an important one, as RT Campbell Barrington is out of eligibility. They will need to find a replacement, and it’s possible it comes from an in-house candidate. They will lose a little depth to graduations and one transfer out. As mentioned, most of this group returning will bear out good cohesion and another solid campaign as the foundation for the offensive success that they look to sustain from a year ago.

DEFENSE: The news of the off-season heading into 2024 was that Dave Aranda needed to save his job and the best way to do that is to take this unit under his direction. It certainly improved, but it was still not entirely up to his desired level. All signs point to him keeping the role another year, but the goal is always to hand back off to a dedicated, trusted coordinator. Matt Powledge holds the title of defensive coordinator, but this remains Aranda’s show. The performance was steady but certainly not exciting. They didn’t get the backfield too much and gave up a few too many explosive plays in the passing game, with 42 of them going for over 30 yards — though none of them were 60+ in nature. They did a good job getting off the field on third down, allowing a 35.8% opponent success rate in those situations. They hit the portal very hard and have a lot of exciting players coming in — which is good because a lot of talent is also leaving, primarily due to expiring eligibility and some depth players transferring out. Aranda will have to mold new faces and get this unit to take another step up in 2025.

||| DL

Jackie Marshall led the way for this group as he graded out as one of the top run stoppers in the land. Treven Ma’ae played a similar work load and performed at a high level as well. Elinus Noel III was next in the rotation and didn’t seem to make any special contributions. Marshall is returning for another year and they will lose Ma’ae and Noel III, there is an exciting player named Devonte Tezino, who showed well in his limited opportunities. They bring in two really good ones from the portal, including Matthew Fobbs-White (Tulane) and Emar’rion Winston (Oregon). This should be improved.

||| LB

This rotation went five deep with the two primary starters being Matt Jones and Keaton Thomas. They rarely left the field, only to be spelled every once in a while. Jones graduates, but Thomas comes back as one of the best rated tacklers in the game. 2/3 of the ‘next up’ group are out with Garmon Randolph and Steve Linton moving on. They have Kyler Jordan returning and bring in two more from the portal with Travion Barnes coming in from FIU and Phoenix Jackson from Fresno State. They’ll need to level up their game, but they should be able to do just that. Thomas will lead the way to another solid performance from this group.

||| DB

This was a really deep unit, going 11 deep on most Saturdays. They’ll lose one of their best as CB Lorando Johnson has run out of eligibility. They will lose a role player in Corey Gordon Jr., who chipped in well in run defense. Overall, there is a lot of returning talent here and they hope former 4-star Calvin Simpson-Hunt (Ohio State) can step into a cornerback role. They also hit the portal for Devin Turner (Northwestern) and Tyler Turner (Oregon). This is also set up for a step-up in production.

SPECIAL TEAMS: These special teams were indeed ‘special’ and played a big role in the turn around. Isaiah Hankins seized the place kicking duties and was good (enough). It was the punting game that really helped out - both the punter himself, Palmer Williams, and the coverage that ensued. That unit allowed just 5.8 yards per return on those that were returned. Williams touted a long of 79 yards on the season. Finally, they had the best punt returner in the nation with Josh Cameron doing his thing, leading with an average of 20.7 yards per return.

Reader feedback is requested and encouraged! Who knows these teams better than their passionate fan bases? We don’t pretend to know it all and would love your feedback. We will update/edit based (and credit) for anything that is brought to our attention. Let’s do this together…

|||||| TRANSFER PORTAL TRACKER

Getting to a green number here is impressive and looking at the losses, while they are talented players, most were not expected to play key roles. That includes the two running backs — Richard Reese and Dominic Richardson — and quarterback Dequan Finn. The additions are many, especially on defense where they need them more. This is a good haul and will set the Bears.

Below is a screen shot of the full, live Transfer Portal Tracker over at CFBDepth.com. Click the image or the button below to view it in its entirety…

Live Baylor Portal Tracker >

|||||| 2025 RECRUITING CLASS

You always like to see four, 4-star recruits from your home state sticking around. There certainly are plenty of them out there in talent-rich Texas, but they get two on offense and two on defense to spread the love a bit. They didn’t seem to win in the lines of scrimmage in this particular class, but maybe the can develop and, again, it’s just an ‘expert’ rating at this point. Overall, that overall ranking isn’t going to get anybody too excited, but it’s a solid group.

Here is a snapshot of the 2025 Recruiting Class+ with a link to the live page with updates throughout the cycle:

2025 Baylor Recruiting Class+ >

|||||| 2025 SCHEDULE LOOK AHEAD

This slate at first glance looks a bit more difficult than the 2024 version. Opening with Auburn at home will be a tone-setter for the season. They then have two of the ‘24 surprises with SMU (in Dallas) and Arizona State in the first four weeks of the season. Oklahoma State in Stillwater will be no cakewalk and K-State always puts up a good fight. Other than Samford in week three do you see a sure-fire win in that grouping. They then move to the rest of the Big XII slate and most of those games will be toss-ups and single-digit spread games. They must do what they did last year and take care of those close ones to match their win total from last year.

There is a lot of movement and decisions to be made throughout the off-season, including more portal moves, winter workouts and spring ball. Get all caught up with the full-on State of the Chart Magazine coming in July. If you missed the ad before, get more information and give us your e-mail to stay in the loop on everything SOTC!

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