SOTC Update: Cincinnati Bearcats
The second season under Scott Satterfield was a mixed bag. Some good things and some ugly things. This roster appears in shape to take on a tougher slate in 2025 and take another step forward.
Cincinnati Bearcats
State of the Chart™ Recap Edition
Live All-In Ranking: 60th
Offense: 51st
Defense: 55th
2024 Results: 5-7 (3-6 in Big XII)
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|||||| STATE OF THE CHART™ SUMMARY
Year two of the Scott Satterfield era can best be described as a mixed bag. On one hand, you have a two-game increase in the win column. On the other hand, there is the five-game stretch at the end, with a chance to get bowl-eligible, but it never happened. There were some unfortunate factors at play here, and this was a bowl-level squad with plenty of talent on the roster. They didn’t execute. They hit on their portal addition at quarterback, as Brendan Sorsby is the real deal. He’ll make plays himself, but imagine what this Satterfield-called offense could become if there is a true deep passing threat at all times. The defense gave up a lot of yards but found ways to get off the field and limit damage. There were two one-point losses and three games that they deserved to win. So, as the focus turns to 2025, the staff is doing a nice job addressing talent losses throughout the roster and building one with all the pieces to take another step forward and get up to that expected 7-9 win range.
|||||| HEAD COACH AND COACHING STAFF
When Scott Satterfield took this job, leaving Louisville, a rough season was expected in 2023 as they made the move to the Big XII conference. It was just that — a three-win campaign. He and his staff hit the portal hard to bring in talent, knowing they needed improvement in year two. And they did just that, getting to five wins. Nobody would be truly happy with this season, but it's a step in the right direction. They have their quarterback to build around, and the next step here would be 7-8 wins, and that is within reach.
Coaching Staff Notes/Changes:
Eddie Hicks comes in from LSU where he was the ‘lead defensive analyst’ for the Tigers for the past two seasons. He holds the cornerbacks coach role, replacing former Ohio State coordinator Kerry Coombs, who was not retained.
Adam Braithwaite is named safeties coach, coming in from Samford, where he was the defensive coordinator and safeties coach in 2024. The year prior, he was DC/S at Tennessee Tech.
Note: This is a “dynamic” article; meaning we will update any information that comes in this “off-season” and post a note when impactful moves are made or news breaks.
|||||| 2024 SCHEDULE / RESULTS ANALYSIS
This wasn’t a particularly tough slate, though they do play Pittsburgh in non-conference play. They lost that game by a point in week two. They did have both eventual Big XII title contenders, Arizona State, and Iowa State on the schedule, actually downing the eventual champ Sun Devils in week eight. That would be considered a hindsight highlight with the five-game losing streak ending as the forgettable portion. They had five chances to get bowl eligible and came within a point of doing so in Boulder in week nine, but it never happened. Our deserved wins (dWINS) metric tells us that they really should have made it there, sitting at 7.1 wins. Be it the two one-point losses mentioned, or the 19-13 UCF loss that showed a 75% post-game win expectancy, this team deserved to play an extra game.
||||||| POSITION GROUP CHECK-INS
OFFENSE: The head coach, Scott Satterfield calls the plays here and this second season was much easier than the first. That’s primarily due to having a weapon at quarterback, as Brendan Sorsby, the Indiana transfer, turned out to be. They ran the ball particularly well, putting up a 5.17 yards per carry mark (20th in FBS). This was made possible by a pretty darn good offensive line that came in as a top-30 talent-wise in the land. Sorsby certainly had a lot to do with it as well — running it 123 times for over 500 yards and nine scores — and boosted the pass protection numbers with his athletic ability. So, how did we end up at just 25.2 yards per game (89th in FBS)? Part of it was the touchdown conversion rate that stood at just 69.8% overall and 58% in the red zone. They just needed to turn more of those opportunities into six points. That’s why you see a discrepancy between that points scored number and the more telling yards/play metric, which was at 6.14 (39th). Sorsby flirted with the portal following the season but ultimately decided to stick around. If this offense is to take a step forward, it comes down to that execution — oh, and that they hit on those transfers coming in at wide receiver in the passing game to complement that ground attack.
||| QB
Brendan Sorsby was a hit pick-up in the portal last year. He is a true dual-threat and this was his first extensive playing time. He snuck into the portal to look around but decided to come back. He should continue to grow as long as new weapons emerge in the passing game, and that remains a viable option. Brady Lichtenberg will return as the backup, and Samaj Jones, a 4-star in the ‘24 class, could be the future here.
||| RB
Corey Kiner as the primary back and was pretty good with this 200+ carries. He heads to the NFL. Evan Pryor, former Buckeye, got some good time and chipped in the passing game a bit more than Kiner. He may not be viewed as that full-on lead back, so they bring in Tawee Walker from Wisconsin, who transfers for the second straight season after coming to Madison from Oklahoma. He should have a big role and this will work best if the two of them feed off of one another. Manny Covey and Chance Williams are set to return as depth.
||| WR
Xzavier Henderson led the way here with just under 100 targets but only converted on 59%. He did make some big plays. He graduates, as does the #3-6 most targeted in the room. Only Tony Johnson returns as more of a possession option. He’s good, but they need more. Caleb Goodie comes in from Colorado State and has big potential as a field stretcher; he had a 17.2 average depth of target for the Rams and has three years of eligibility left. Cyrus Allen also showed well for A&M when he cracked the lineup and the FCS transfer. Jeff Caldwell turned 53 grabs into over 1,000 yards at Lindenwood. Looks like they have the dudes to allow Sorsby to maximize this offense.
||| TE
Joe Royer is another of those Ohio State transfers who has found a home here. He was a genuine threat in the passing game and a plus-plus in pass pro. He returns for one more season, and that’s big for this offense. Backup Francis Sherman graduates, and they hit up Columbus again for Patrick Gurd to potentially see more playing time here and take on that secondary role. Gavin Grover got some time in as a blocker as a true freshman and showed well in limited snaps. Royer could have a massive season in store.
||| OL
This was an impressive group, led by two NFL-caliber players in LT John Williams and RG Luke Kandra. Both move on and they also will lose RT Phillip Wilder and LG Dartanyan Tinsley. Center Gavin Gerhardt is the lone returner of this group and he is a good one. What to do about filling these holes? It appears Xaver Lozowicki (former FCS Maine) is set up to step into one of the tackle spots and then they hit the portal to get a really good one in Taran Tyo from Ball State for the other. Nolan Latulippe is a transfer in from FCS Albany and is believed to be in the running for one of those tackle spots, though the player-level data doesn’t suggest he’s ready for this level. One of the guard spots is likely going to Evan Tengesdahl, who played 87 snaps there last year and showed well. They just need somebody to step into that other guard spot and they may not miss a beat here, which would be impressive considering the losses.
Update (4/19): They bring in Joe Cotton [12.4] to likely take one of those tackle spots, though he may have to beat out Lozowicki for that right. They are addressing the losses and should be able to get this to a similar level.
DEFENSE: This defensive unit was a bit of a mixed bag, but if you could point to one factor that kept this in check, it would be their ability to bear down in the red zone and limit touchdowns. Opponents touchdown rate was 63% of their total scores, ranked 12th lowest in FBS football. In the red zone itself, this group allowed just 51% to end up in pay dirt. That will help keep you above water and finish at 24.6 points per game allowed — ranked 62nd. The achilles heels was the let downs in the secondary at times, allowing too many explosive plays. They gave up 40 of those that went for 30+ yards — eight of which were over 50 yards. On the contrast, they allowed just six such chunk plays in the run game, even though the yards per play numbers for each were similarly, well, unimpressive. Bottom line is that they bent, by giving up a lot of yardage, but didn’t break by forcing a lot of field goal attempts. Everything else was squarely in the middle. The talent-level ratings show a weakness in the pass rush, even though they did manage 21 sacks throughout the season. Creating a big more havoc in the backfield would likely do wonders for Tyson Veidt in his second season at the controls.
||| DL
This group was ravaged by injuries early. They lost both Jalen Hunt and Mikah Coleman in camp and appeared to lose their star Dontay Corleone as well. While Corleone overcame the injury and played (nearly) a full season, the other two missed the entirety. Getting Hunt and Coleman back to join up with the star Corleone sets this up for success. Add Jaylon White-McClain from ODU in the portal; this group looks stronger if they can avoid the injury bug.
||| LB
Jared Bartlett accounted for 38% of the total sacks on the team and was an impact player on the edge. He wasn’t as dynamic in other areas. He will be missed as he graduates. The rest of this room returns, and there is some exciting talent to work with. Jake Golday and Jonathan Thompson are plus run-stoppers. Jack Dingle showed well, and Simeon Coleman emerged with limited playing time as a true freshman. This is a top unit if they can find somebody to weasel their way into the backfield with some frequency.
||| DB
Other than being over-aggressive at times, resulting in big plays, this was another impressive unit. They will lose their top three in terms of playing time. CB Jordan Young bolts for Arkansas. Safeties Derrick Canteen and Josh Minkins both run out of eligibility. Antwan Peek Jr. has come a long way and will be asked to step up into a leadership role. Some other nuggets of high-level play mixed in deep in the rotation here and hit the portal hard to supplement. Matthew McDoom doesn’t just have a cool name — he is an impact player at corner and can offset the loss of Young. Christian Harrison comes in from Tennessee and could earn a starting role at safety. Overall, there are some losses to replace, but they appear to have the reinforcements to handle it.
SPECIAL TEAMS: Nothing special to report here as Nathan Hawks was the primary place kicker, and he was pretty good, only missing four field goals, and three of them were over 50 yards. He and Carter Brown are not returning, so they upgraded by bringing in Stephen Rusnak from Charlotte, who didn’t miss in 2024 (11/11 field goals, including three 50+ and 25/25 PAT). Mason Fletcher was not great in his final season as the punter, but he now gives way to his younger brother, Max, who may be much better. The punt returners were nothing special, and they will look to get a little more from that unit in 2025. If they do, this appears to be on the way to a big upgrade and potential impact group.
Reader feedback is requested and encouraged! Who knows these teams better than their passionate fan bases? We don’t pretend to know it all and would love your feedback. We will update/edit based (and credit) for anything that is brought to our attention. Let’s do this together…
|||||| TRANSFER PORTAL TRACKER
Nice work being done in the portal here from Satterfield and crew. They upgrade the kicking game, while bringing in needed replacements on the offensive line and secondary. Adding a second running back in Tawee Walker to join up with Evan Pryor is going to pay big dividends as well. The most glaring losses are on defense as Jordan Young leaves for Arkansas and Kameron Wilson heads to Miami (OH). The rest are more negligible and this is a win at this point.
Below is a screen shot of the full, live Transfer Portal Tracker over at CFBDepth.com. Click the image or the button below to view it in its entirety…
|||||| 2025 RECRUITING CLASS
With more of a focus on the portal, this turns out to be a solid, if not unspectacular, recruiting class. Nobody ventures in the 4-star range by the composite grading, but that’s okay. A top-25 class is not to be expected here. They will need to develop and retain to add to the pipeline as a few are sure to over-perform their current ratings.
Here is a snapshot of the 2025 Recruiting Class+ with a link to the live page with updates throughout the cycle:
|||||| 2025 SCHEDULE LOOK AHEAD
This appears to be a similar slate to a year ago, though they do open with a sure-to-be improved Nebraska team. Bowling Green may be a bit of a mess with the late coaching change to Eddie George, so getting them early is likely a good thing. If they play their cards right and get a few bounces, 3-0 is not out of the question before hte week four bye. Then, that ‘toss-up’ filled Big XII slate features a nice mix of the parity-filled conference. Tough road trips include to Lawrence in KU’s newly renovated stadium, Salt Lake City against the Utes is never easy and then they finish up with the Horned Frogs in Fort Worth.
There is a lot of movement and decisions to be made throughout the off-season, including more portal moves, winter workouts and spring ball. Get all caught up with the full-on State of the Chart Magazine coming in July. If you missed the ad before, get more information and give us your e-mail to stay in the loop on everything SOTC!
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