SOTC Update: Miami Hurricanes
Mario Cristobal and the 'Canes missed a golden opportunity in 2024. This is still a very talented roster, but the turnover will cause growing pains, and they don't have time for that in 2025.
Miami Hurricanes
State of the Chart™ Recap Edition
Live All-In Ranking: 9th
Offense: 3rd
Defense: 30th
2024 Results: 10-3 (6-2 in ACC)
The following information is just the beginning and everything will be updated in our first edition of the State of the Chart™ digital magazine. Slated for a launch in July of 2025, learn more about this and shoot us your email to be kept up-to-speed on launch dates and receive sneak previews…
Our paid subscribers here at Substack will get the full magazine at no cost. Consider supporting our work for just $5.99/month or $59.99 for a full year.
|||||| STATE OF THE CHART™ SUMMARY
Mario Cristobal left a great situation in Oregon to head home to Miami and build the Hurricanes back into a national power. It was expected to take some time, but it was clear that he would do it by building a roster worthy of such successes. He’s accomplished that in his first three seasons back at South Beach. In 2024, he took it to a new level getting two key offensive weapons from the portal — QB Cam Ward from Washington State and RB Damien Martinez from Oregon State — to power the offense to new heights. They reached the mountaintop as the best offense in the country by many metrics. Unfortunately, it was a defensive deterioration and some questionable in-game calls from Cristobal himself, that doomed the season that seemed destined for at least a spot in the ACC title game. That great disappointment only lingers as they lose both of those dynamic weapons on offense, along with other talented pass catchers. The defense is primed for a comeback under new defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman, who was hired away from Minnesota, and he has plenty of talent, both returning and injected through the portal, to work with. They will need to offense to rally around another new quarterback as Carson Beck comes in from Georgia to take over. If he can get fully healthy and grasp the offense, things could be where they were a year ago. That is an awfully tall order and would be difficult to achieve, and they’ll need some bounces to get this over the hump in 2025.
|||||| HEAD COACH AND COACHING STAFF
Mario Cristobal built his roster to get the ‘Canes back to a 10-win team in 2024. He’s been leaning on the portal for key offensive weapons, especially quarterbacks, while the recruiting classes continue to impress. The next step is getting that talent over the hump and avoiding bone-headed in-game calls (see: ‘kneel the ball’) leading to a late season collapse and missing out on the ACC title game and the CFP.
Coaching Staff Notes/Changes:
There is a change at defensive coordinator after a late-season collapse on that side of the ball led to the firing of Lance Guidry. Cristobal turns to Corey Hetherman, in from Minnesota, where he put together an impressive run as the Gophers play-caller last season. He was at Rutgers before that, and the 41-year-old is considered a top defensive mind in the industry. He will be challenged with facing different styles of offenses in the ACC, but many believe he will handle this, take the talent level here, and build it back up.
Will Harris, 37, is hired as the safeties coach. He comes from Florida, where he held the secondary coach role in 2024. Prior to that, he was in the NFL with the Chargers as their assistant secondary coach. He is also highly regarded as a recruiter.
Damione Lewis, 47, returns to his alma mater after a season with Coach Prime in Boulder, Colorado. He spent one season as the Buffaloes' defensive line coach after four seasons in the NFL, holding a variety of roles for the Seahawks. He holds the title of defensive tackles coach for the Canes. He starred here from 1996-00 before a nine-year NFL playing career.
Note: This is a “dynamic” article; meaning we will update any information that comes in this “off-season” and post a note when impactful moves are made or news breaks.
|||||| 2024 SCHEDULE / RESULTS ANALYSIS
This was a tale of two seasons. The first 3/4 of it saw the ‘Canes rolling through their schedule, starting with a blowout of rival Florida in the Swamp in week one. They then romped through a stretch of their other non-conference foes, outscoring them 168-24. The ACC schedule then gave them a bit more of a challenge and those results started to narrow. They beat Virginia Tech and Cal by a combined five points. The post-game win expectancy (PGWE) number showing they should have lost that Cal game. In hind sight, maybe this wouldn’t have been such a painful collapse had they just dropped a couple of games earlier in the season. They won a shootout with Louisville on the road, beat a down Florida State and dominated Duke to get to nine wins. The defense showed flaws leading up to the first loss of the season, at Georgia Tech, in week 11, a game that was not as close as the score indicated. They whooped up on Wake Forest before dropping their finale to upstart Syracuse, keeping them from the ACC title game. They lost the bowl game by a point to the Cyclones. Those defensive woes were fully in the forefront by the time this seasons ended and that is squarely where the finger was pointed for this disappointing ending.
||||||| POSITION GROUP CHECK-INS
OFFENSE: Shannon Dawson’s offense was clicking on all cylinders in 2025. Led by the great quarterback Cam Ward, they did just about everything well. They led all FBS teams in yards per game with 537.2 and the 7.6 yards per play were also tops amongst all teams. They didn’t even run this thing at breakneck speed, finishing at 26.9 seconds per play (77th fastest). They were explosive, especially in the passing game, with 86 plays over 30 yards, including a remarkable 27 going for 50+ yards. They finished drives, scoring touchdowns on 72% of trips to the red zone, and achieved success on third down, with a 56.3% success rate. All the things. How much of it was Cam Ward? That is the question. It can be assumed he had a lot to do with it. So, as they move to Georgia to transfer Carson Beck in 2025, things will be different. Beck is a different player, so adjustments must be made. They also need him to return to full health after the hand injury suffered in the SEC Championship game. We’ll learn much about Dawson’s coordinator and play-caller abilities in 2025.
||| QB
Cam Ward was everything they hoped for (and more) in 2024. He’ll head to the NFL and likely take that league by storm. They moved to Carson Beck, who came in after starting at Georgia in the past two seasons. He’s good, but he is not Cam Ward. He must also return to full health after a hand injury ended his season early. Emory Williams returns as the backup. Luke Nickel is a name to know for the future, a four-star recruit in this ‘25 class.
||| RB
Another super-transfer, Damien Martinez (Oregon State), was another, possibly overlooked, big part of this quick offensive turnaround. He led with 160 carries, got over 1,000 yards, and scored ten times. He heads to the NFL as well. There is plenty of talent in this room to step into these roles, led by younger options in Mark Fletcher Jr. and Jordan Lyle. Those two can be expected to share this role and be productive, even growing with more experience.
||| WR
This was a nice, balanced wide receiver corps providing options for Ward to execute on the game plan. All four of the top options are either heading to the NFL, or in the case of Isaiah Horton, transferring out to Alabama. This will be a full rebuild. Internally, Ray Ray Joseph should move into a full-time slot role and we should see more of Joshua Trader as well. They get CJ Daniels in from LSU via the portal, but they will need more if they are going to match the production here.
||| TE
Elijah Arroyo was really good as the primary tight end here. He showed well when needed in the passing game, hauling seven touchdowns, and was above average in blocking schemes. He’ll be missed as he moves to the next level. Elija Lofton was a true freshman and appears primed to step into a more significant role. They hit the portal to bring in two from the group of five — Jack Nickel (UAB) and Alex Bauman (Tulane) — to provide some depth. They will want to utilize multiple players here, and have some options.
||| OL
This line was good, but it was not the reason for the success of this offense. Francis Mauigoa is growing into his lofty potential at right tackle. They’ll lose their starting center Zach Carpenter to graduation, and left tackle Jalen Rivers is heading to the NFL early. James Brockermeyer is coming in from TCU to fill Carpenter’s role, and they will likely look internally to fill the other tackle spot. We should see another former 5-star in Samson Okunlola stepping into a more prominent role. The guards — Matthew McCoy and Anez Cooper — were solid contributors and will return. All told, this should wind up close to 2024.
DEFENSE: Lance Guidry was given a chance to improve upon a rough 2023 season that saw the super-talented Hurricanes defense allow 22.8 points per game. That may seem like a reasonable number, and it is, but it is not compared to that level of expectation here. 2024 started okay but deteriorated quickly and rose to the level of true incompetence at the very end. That points per game metric rose slightly to 25.3, but in three of the last four games, opponents averaged 500+ yards and 37 points on average. Before things fell apart, this defense was really tough against the run, allowing just 3.75 yards per carry and under 115 yards per game. Even that was well below their ninth ranking in our pure talent ratings in run defense ability. It was this underachieving that ultimately spelled the end for Guidry. Cristobal turns to Minnesota DC Corey Hetherman, who is getting a big job after just one season as the play-caller for the Gophers. He will have no talent shortage to work with, even as many impact players from the 2024 squad won’t be back. They hit the portal — especially in the secondary — to ensure he has the tools to do what he did in Minneapolis. The revival of this defense to keep up with offense is the key to the 2025 season. No pressure.
||| DL
They stuffed the run and got in the backfield with relative ease. Led by Tyler Baron’s ten sacks, plenty of others chipped in on both sides of the game. Akheem Mesidor and Rueben Bain Jr. will lead the returners as they see Baron head to the NFL and Simeon Barrow Jr. moving on. They do bring in one portal reinforcement, DT David Blay from Tulsa, who could earn a role. It will be tough to match last season, but they have the horses to be really disruptive again.
||| LB
Francisco Mauigoa was the primary middle linebacker and as he moves on to the NFL, the ‘Canes do get back Wesley Bissainthe, who graded out as a big-time run stuffer and tackler. Everybody else in the rotation returns and with a bit more experience and playing time should continue to develop. Raul Aguirre Jr. is particularly intriguing coming off his sophomore season, putting up great performances in limited reps. We should see a step up here with new DC Hetherman’s expertise injected.
||| DB
This group may have under-performed and with so many leaving due to graduation (NB Mishael Powell and CB Daryl Porter Jr.) or the portal (S Jaden Harris and CB D’Yoni Hill), they took to the portal themselves to re-load. The much publicized portal addition of CB Xavier Lucas from Wisconsin tops the list. Ethan O’Connor (Washington State) and Charles Brantley (Michigan State) are sure to be contributors. If Hetherman can find cohesion, this should be improved in ‘25.
SPECIAL TEAMS: Andres Borregales was one of the best kickers in the game. He nailed 18/19, including two over 50 yards and 62/62 PATs. He moves on to the NFL. As of now, it appears Abram Murray, a 3-star recruit (which is high for a kicker), will get a shot to earn this job as a redshirt freshman in ‘25. Dylan Joyce was a good punter and he returns. Chris Johnson Jr. and Ray Ray Joseph handled the kickoff and punt return jobs exclusively and were both serviceable. Johnson Jr. graduates, so they’ll need a new body in that role. With so many athletes, they should be able to find somebody to impact the game.
Reader feedback is requested and encouraged! Who knows these teams better than their passionate fan bases? We don’t pretend to know it all and would love your feedback. We will update/edit based (and credit) for anything that is brought to our attention. Let’s do this together…
|||||| TRANSFER PORTAL TRACKER
They lost more players than they gained, but the average talent level of the two ended up very similar. They got some big names in to take on key roles, which was much needed, but the depth took a hit by losing others. They will be just fine, as long as QB Carson Beck fully returns to health and leads this offense as the follow-up to the great Cam Ward. The additions in the secondary also stand out as this regime saw too many big plays happening through the year and need to shore that up right away.
Below is a screen shot of the full, live Transfer Portal Tracker over at CFBDepth.com. Click the image or the button below to view it in its entirety…
|||||| 2025 RECRUITING CLASS
The big-time recruits keep on coming to Miami as the appeal for them is there and the NIL money is being procured. This time around they didn’t land any of the 5-star talents, but when you land 15 4-star, you are sure to hit on a couple who develop into premier talents. That is certainly the case with this 2025 class.
Here is a snapshot of the 2025 Recruiting Class+ with a link to the live page with updates throughout the cycle:
|||||| 2025 SCHEDULE LOOK AHEAD
The schedule looks similar to last season in terms of difficulty. After last year started in the Swamp, this year they will get Notre Dame coming to Hard Rock Stadium. A sure-to-be tough opening contest against the National runners-up. They then get a break with FCS Bethune-Cookman and USF (be careful), before the rivalry game against Florida shifts back to Miami. The ACC schedule looks similar to most, but they can expect to see a much improved Florida State team come week six, in Tallahassee, between the byes.
There is a lot of movement and decisions to be made throughout the off-season, including more portal moves, winter workouts and spring ball. Get all caught up with the full-on State of the Chart Magazine coming in July. If you missed the ad before, get more information and give us your e-mail to stay in the loop on everything SOTC!
We hope you enjoyed this content. Please subscribe, re-stack, share, and spread the word of this little endeavor. This fuels our work each and every day and keeps us going. Thank you.
State of the Chart™ Recap Edition Links & Schedule
Southeastern Conference (SEC)
2/1: Alabama Crimson Tide
2/3: Georgia Bulldogs
2/4: LSU Tigers
2/5: Auburn Tigers
2/6: Arkansas Razorbacks
2/7: Florida Gators
2/8: Ole Miss Rebels
2/10: Tennessee Volunteers
2/11: Missouri Tigers
2/12: Texas A&M Aggies
2/13: Oklahoma Sooners
2/14: Texas Longhorns
2/15: South Carolina Gamecocks
2/16: Vanderbilt Commodores
2/17: Mississippi State Bulldogs
2/18: Kentucky Wildcats
Big Ten Conference
2/19: Ohio State Buckeyes
2/20: Michigan Wolverines
2/21: Penn State Nittany Lions
2/22: Indiana Hoosiers
2/23: Wisconsin Badgers
2/24: Northwestern Wildcats
2/25: Oregon Ducks
2/26: Nebraska Cornhuskers
2/27: Minnesota Golden Gophers
2/28: Iowa Hawkeyes
3/1: Michigan State Spartans
3/2: Maryland Terrapins
3/3: Purdue Boilermakers
3/4: Rutgers Scarlet Knights
3/5: Illinois Fighting Illini
3/6: Washington Huskies
3/7: USC Trojans
3/8: UCLA Bruins
Big 12 Conference
3/9: TCU Horned Frogs
3/10: Baylor Bears
3/11: Oklahoma State Cowboys
3/12: Kansas State Wildcats
3/13: West Virginia Mountaineers
3/14: Iowa State Cyclones
3/15: Texas Tech Red Raiders
3/16: Kansas Jayhawks
3/17: BYU Cougars
3/18: Cincinnati Bearcats
3/23: UCF Knights
3/24: Houston Cougars
3/25: Arizona Wildcats
3/26: Arizona State Sun Devils
3/27: Utah Utes
3/28: Colorado Buffaloes
Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC)
3/29: Florida State Seminoles
3/30: Louisville Cardinals
4/1: Clemson Tigers