SOTC Update: NC State Wolfpack
The Wolfpack fell under .500 for the first time since '19, and at first glance, there is not much optimism about a quick turnaround. Dave Doeren and his new-look staff have a hill to climb in 2025.
North Carolina State Wolfpack
State of the Chart™ Recap Edition
Live All-In Ranking: 43rd
Offense: 42nd
Defense: 52nd
2024 Results: 6-7 (3-5 in ACC)
The following information is just the beginning and everything will be updated in our first edition of the State of the Chart™ digital magazine. Slated for a launch in July of 2025, learn more about this and shoot us your email to be kept up-to-speed on launch dates and receive sneak previews…
Our paid subscribers here at Substack will get the full magazine at no cost. Consider supporting our work for just $5.99/month or $59.99 for a full year.
|||||| STATE OF THE CHART™ SUMMARY
The criticisms of head coach Dave Doeren are often dismissed due to the “what else could you possibly want here” narrative. But when you fall under .500 for the first time in a long time, those complaints begin to take on a bit more meaning. The Wolfpack suffered through a brutal stretch as the defense folded against top competition, and the offense lacked any ingenuity when things weren’t working. The bowl loss to ECU — and the subsequent brawl — were a microcosm of the season. It was one to forget. The reset here for 2025 includes two new coordinators, neither of which sparks a whole lot of enthusiasm, but Doeren knows what he wants, and these guys should be given a shot. After hitting the portal to bring in quarterbacks the past two seasons, both of which ended early due to injuries, they finally have an internal, young player returning with a big upside. If CJ Bailey continues his growth, this offense can get back on track quickly. The defense was a mess, and they must deal with major losses in the secondary heading into this season. They get a key player back from injury in LB Caden Fordham, and this newly led defensive staff will be tested to improve the lackluster performance of ‘24. If both can make incremental gains, this could be a 7-9-win team, but expecting anything more than that would be unreasonable.
|||||| HEAD COACH AND COACHING STAFF
Dave Doeren is certainly entrenched as the head coach in Raleigh. He’s done a nice job overall, but Wolfpack fans’ patience seems to be wearing a bit thin. After a losing 2024 season, changes are needed. He’s responding by making changes at both coordinator positions and the refresh in 2025 is going to be one to watch. He’s not going anywhere, but another losing season may being to warm his seat.
Coaching Staff Notes/Changes:
At defensive coordinator D.J. Eliot replaces Tony Gibson, who left for the head coaching role at Marshall. Eliot brings a wealth of experience having been in the DC role for Colorado, Kentucky, Kansas and Temple. He also has NFL experience and should help bridge a gap that Gibson leaves after five seasons in the role in Raleigh.
Offensive coordinator Robert Anae was fired after a poor showing in 2024 offensively. He was in the role the past two seasons. For this opening, Doeren has decided to promote from within. Quarterbacks coach Kurt Roper will get his shot to run the offense in 2025.
Tight Ends coach Gavin Locklear earned a promotion this off-season after having served as an unpaid volunteer assistant, then a graduate assistant, followed by a quality control coach. He worked he way up after having played at NC State for Doeren, as a walk-on, then embarked on his coaching career.
Charlton Warren joins the staff from North Carolina after having served as their Associate Head Coach/Defensive Backs coach the past three seasons. He has extensive experience in a variety of secondary roles that includes stops at Georgia, Florida and Tennessee.
Note: This is a “dynamic” article; meaning we will update any information that comes in this “off-season” and post a note when impactful moves are made or news breaks.
|||||| 2024 SCHEDULE / RESULTS ANALYSIS
The defense showed its warts right away when they played a couple of top offenses, giving up a combined 110 points to Tennessee and Clemson. They won the games they should have won early, split the toss-ups, and then really should have won that Syracuse game in week seven. If you are looking for silver linings after the losses to Wake and the Orange, this team could have quit. Instead, they went on a solid run of beating Cal on the road and whopping up on Stanford. The Duke and Georgia Tech losses were understandable, but still not something they will be okay with, long-term. They finished strong against North Carolina but lost the ECU in the bowl game, which was further mired by a nasty brawl that was not a good look. That kind of summed up the season for the Wolfpack. A disappointing one, to say the least.
||||||| POSITION GROUP CHECK-INS
OFFENSE: Robert Anae’s hiring before the 2023 season was viewed as an excellent hire for Doeren and this staff. It was also closely tied to the addition of Brennan Armstrong at quarterback. That was derailed by injury, and in 2024, things just never seemed to take hold with Grayson McCall, who eventually was also injured and had to retire with multiple (over 25) concussions. They ran very slow, a play every 29.6 seconds, which ranked 129th in FBS. Perhaps the most disappointing metric that comes from this is that they wasted what PFF says was a really darn good offensive line. They finished 12th overall in our O-Line rotational talent rankings, yet they allowed 92 (!) tackles for loss and were ranked just 59th in rush yards per play at 4.48. When we see that discrepancy, we blame the talent on the field. He lacked ingenuity in the play calling and scheming that spelled the end for Anae, and in 2025, they are turning to an internal candidate, Kurt Roper, rising from quarterback coach to take over. Roper is not new to this. He has nine years of experience as a coordinator. He experienced some success at Duke, primarily in the passing game, before he struggled in roles at Florida and South Carolina. This is a widely questioned move, and the pressure will be on to get this offense figured out quickly. Quarterback CJ Bailey did get good experience and showed signs of greatness (and weakness) as a true freshman.
||| QB
True freshman CJ Bailey was making waves in his first spring/summer camp and eventually took the job from injured Grayson McCall. As expected, things were up-and-down, but overall, it was an impressive debut, and the experience gained is significant for his development. He will return as the surefire starter, with Lex Thomas likely the primary backup. OC Roper has had success in the passing game before, and this could be a big year for Bailey.
||| RB
Anae went with a full-on committee approach here with the intent to keep guys fresh and running hard. Daylan “Hollywood” Smothers came over from OU and took on a role, along with talent returnee Jordan Waters and Kendrick Raphael. Nobody really took hold but Smothers was the best of the bunch. He returns, along with Raphael to try to get this thing back on track. Expect to see a form of a committee with a potential third, but this is a new offense and Smothers can handle more.
Update (4/13): Kendrick Raphael announced his intention to enter the spring portal window. This is further evidence that Smothers is positioning himself for a lead role here in 2025.
||| WR
KC Concepcion burst on the scene as a true freshman in 2023 and immediately took a big step back in production in ‘24. He moves on to Texas A&M, and they get just about every contributor behind him. They don’t hit the portal, so they must believe they have what they need to do this. Four 4-star recruits (from other schools) are ready to take on more prominent roles, including Noah Rogers, Wesley Grimes, and Dacari Collins. Those three should lead the way.
Update (4/16): Collins hit the spring portal window as he may have seen Rogers and Grimes seriously threatening his shot to impact things here.
||| TE
Justin Joly came over from UConn with big expectations to impact this offense. He lived up to that with 43 catches and four touchdowns. He returns for another season and will likely have an even more prominent role. Dante Daniels and Matt McCabe were the primary backups here, focused more on blocking schemes. McCabe came in on passing situations and did a nice job. They both return. There is not much of a change to discuss here.
||| OL
The player-level (PFF) data suggests that this was one of the best offensive lines in the country. Top 15. They had high performers across the board. They return two of them, and they are the top two by the numbers in RT Jacarrius Peak and LG Anthony Carter Jr.. They hit the portal to bring in some more talent, and it is likely we will see Utah State transfer Teague Andersen getting a shot at the left tackle spot. Purdue transfer Jalen Grant can play either guard position or center if needed. There will be a drop-off, but they will remain solid.
DEFENSE: This was about as underachieving a group as you could find. A proud defensive legacy with the Wolfpack was undermined by this 2024 squad, as they did not play up to their potential. They had plenty of front seven talent to cause a lot of havoc in opposing backfields. They called for that a lot — but they didn’t get there a lot, and that caused openings for the offense to exploit other areas. The most glaring weakness was in stopping the run, allowing 4.85 yards per carry, ranking 102nd in FBS. They gave up 35 plays of over 30 yards on the ground alone. This, despite a 43rd ranked run defense talent ranking. Then, in the passing game, they gave up 233.8 yards/game (93rd), despite the 24th ranked in talent. This could have been even worse if they didn’t tighten up a bit in the red zone, allowing just 54% of trips to end in six points (ranked 32nd). Looks like long-time defensive coordinator Tony Gibson got out at the right time. He moves to take over as head coach at Marshall. The reigns are handed to veteran D.J. Eliot, who has called plays at multiple big schools and held roles in the NFL.
||| DL
Davin Vann developed into a star here, accumulating a team-leading eight sacks and being a big contributor in stopping the run. He runs out of eligibility, and looking down the depth chart, they do get back Brandon Cleveland at nose and Travali Price on the other end. They will need to find another pass rusher, and Tra Thomas, in from Temple, can help but is not a Vann clone. There may not be one of those available. Expect a small step back here without their leader.
||| LB
The injury to Caden Fordham had a significant impact on this entire defense. He played just six games before that injury shut him down. He’ll return in the middle and is a boon to this unit. In a hybrid role, Sean Brown played a lot on the outside and performed admirably. Devon Betty was asked to play more and seemed overmatched. He is not returning. They hit the portal for some higher upside depth pieces, but this is Fordham’s group, and it will be better with him for an entire season.
Update (4/7): The Pack get a big portal pick-up in the spring as Northwestern transfer Kenny Soares Jr. [14.9] joins the mix and he’ll join up with Fordham and Brown to make this one of the best linebacking corps in the ACC.
||| DB
This looks like a total rebuild after the top two, NB Tamarcus Cooley and SS Bishop Fitzgerald, bolted in the portal — significant losses to this unit. CB Devon Marshall returns as one of the only players to receive substantial playing time here a year ago. They hit the portal to bring in veterans from Temple, Jamel Johnson and Jeremiah Johnson from Georgia State to play safety. Still, those are not replacements, and this group will need significant stepping up to stay afloat in ‘25.
SPECIAL TEAMS: Kicker Kanoah Vinesett was okay, but he grades out high(er), so he should be better in 2025. Caden Noonkester was not very effective as the primary punter. He also returns and they will need more out of him. All of the kick returners, DK Kaufman (kickoffs) and Jalen Coit/KC Concepcion (punts) are moving on and the’ll need to reset there and find some specialists.
Reader feedback is requested and encouraged! Who knows these teams better than their passionate fan bases? We don’t pretend to know it all and would love your feedback. We will update/edit based (and credit) for anything that is brought to our attention. Let’s do this together…
|||||| TRANSFER PORTAL TRACKER
It may be a slight understatement to say that they were a bit ravaged in the portal. The most glaring hit is to the secondary, and three primary players are headed out to other programs. They are attempting to address that with some defensive back pickups, topping the list on that side of the ledger, but the difference in talent is stark to the red. Doeren and his staff rely more on the recruiting classes and player development, but this does not paint a pretty picture for 2025.
Below is a screen shot of the full, live Transfer Portal Tracker over at CFBDepth.com. Click the image or the button below to view it in its entirety…
|||||| 2025 RECRUITING CLASS
As mentioned above, this class is once again solid. Doeren can undoubtedly recruit. Now, he needs to find a way to hold on to this talent and mold it into more than just a 7-9 win squad. This year, they get in some skill position players, led by three running backs, including a 4-star from Florida named Deandre Desinor, who would immediately contribute. These rankings show that even as the team on the field slips below .500 for the first time, the pipeline will remain in good shape for a turn around and gives good job security to any coach.
Here is a snapshot of the 2025 Recruiting Class+ with a link to the live page with updates throughout the cycle:
|||||| 2025 SCHEDULE LOOK AHEAD
With the ACC in its current state, nobody will have a top-10 ranked schedule difficulty, but this one is remarkably light according to our early SOS+ rankings. They do play Notre Dame on the road in week seven, but the ECU game is rematch of the bowl game — which got a bit chippy — and Campbell is a cakewalk FCS game. Though, they better not treat it that way.
There is a lot of movement and decisions to be made throughout the off-season, including more portal moves, winter workouts and spring ball. Get all caught up with the full-on State of the Chart Magazine coming in July. If you missed the ad before, get more information and give us your e-mail to stay in the loop on everything SOTC!
We hope you enjoyed this content. Please subscribe, re-stack, share, and spread the word of this little endeavor. This fuels our work each and every day and keeps us going. Thank you.
State of the Chart™ Recap Edition Links & Schedule
Southeastern Conference (SEC)
2/1: Alabama Crimson Tide
2/3: Georgia Bulldogs
2/4: LSU Tigers
2/5: Auburn Tigers
2/6: Arkansas Razorbacks
2/7: Florida Gators
2/8: Ole Miss Rebels
2/10: Tennessee Volunteers
2/11: Missouri Tigers
2/12: Texas A&M Aggies
2/13: Oklahoma Sooners
2/14: Texas Longhorns
2/15: South Carolina Gamecocks
2/16: Vanderbilt Commodores
2/17: Mississippi State Bulldogs
2/18: Kentucky Wildcats
Big Ten Conference
2/19: Ohio State Buckeyes
2/20: Michigan Wolverines
2/21: Penn State Nittany Lions
2/22: Indiana Hoosiers
2/23: Wisconsin Badgers
2/24: Northwestern Wildcats
2/25: Oregon Ducks
2/26: Nebraska Cornhuskers
2/27: Minnesota Golden Gophers
2/28: Iowa Hawkeyes
3/1: Michigan State Spartans
3/2: Maryland Terrapins
3/3: Purdue Boilermakers
3/4: Rutgers Scarlet Knights
3/5: Illinois Fighting Illini
3/6: Washington Huskies
3/7: USC Trojans
3/8: UCLA Bruins
Big 12 Conference
3/9: TCU Horned Frogs
3/10: Baylor Bears
3/11: Oklahoma State Cowboys
3/12: Kansas State Wildcats
3/13: West Virginia Mountaineers
3/14: Iowa State Cyclones
3/15: Texas Tech Red Raiders
3/16: Kansas Jayhawks
3/17: BYU Cougars
3/18: Cincinnati Bearcats
3/23: UCF Knights
3/24: Houston Cougars
3/25: Arizona Wildcats
3/26: Arizona State Sun Devils
3/27: Utah Utes
3/28: Colorado Buffaloes
Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC)
3/29: Florida State Seminoles
3/30: Louisville Cardinals
4/1: Clemson Tigers
4/2: Miami Hurricanes