SOTC Update: Duke Blue Devils
Manny Diaz swooped in here after Mike Elko and kept this program on the radar, again led by an aggressive defense. Nine wins may be the new benchmark in Durham, and they should get there again in '25.
Duke Blue Devils
State of the Chart™ Recap Edition
Live All-In Ranking: 41st
Offense: 65th
Defense: 28th
2024 Results: 9-4 (5-3 in ACC)
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|||||| STATE OF THE CHART™ SUMMARY
Mike Eklo built this program and left for Texas A&M. Duke needed to find a veteran coach who could quickly take this roster and keep the momentum going. Enter Manny Diaz, the former Miami head coach, and, most recently, Penn State defensive coordinator. Like Elko, Diaz is defensive-minded, and he came in here, identified who he needed to retain, and kept the defensive level right where it was — even bringing it up a bit. They also lost their all-everything quarterback Riley Leonard to Notre Dame, and this looked like they would need a rebuild/reset year. That was not the case. Diaz and his staff got this thing rolling by bringing in QB Maalik Murphy from Texas to run the offense and molded a defense that lived in opponents’ backfields all season. Getting to nine wins was certainly an accomplishment. They were put in their place by the top of the top, but they are right there now in the second tier and, with a few more bounces, could be entering that upper tier of the ACC. They lose Murphy in the portal to Oregon State, but they get Darian Mensah in from Tulane, who is a much different and possibly a better fit for what they want to do on offense. The defense returns some key players and brings in one big transfer LB/DB Caleb Weaver from Sam Houston, to set the stage for another tough defense. They’ll get a nice test early, with Illinois coming to Durham in week two. Nine wins may be the new benchmark here, and the Devils appear here to stay.
|||||| HEAD COACH AND COACHING STAFF
Manny Diaz had a successful first season as the head man and did it with his usual defensive flair. The Blue Devils were well-prepared and that is something that doesn’t slump. They did look helpless against two of the top teams in the country, so they are clearly not there yet, nor should they be. They are attracting talent and keeping it around as the portal is not a primary strategy for Diaz. He brings back most of his staff for 2025 as well. This is looking like it will work out.
Coaching Staff Notes/Changes:
There is only one notable on-field coaching change to the staff for 2025 and that is Chris Foster joining as running backs coach after Willie Simmons was hired as Florida International’s new head coach. Foster was at Northwestern in the same role the past two seasons.
Note: This is a “dynamic” article; meaning we will update any information that comes in this “off-season” and post a note when impactful moves are made or news breaks.
|||||| 2024 SCHEDULE / RESULTS ANALYSIS
The Blue Devils got off to a good start, winning close games, even ones they probably shouldn’t have won — including the UConn and UNC games. Both of those could have gone the other way, but they started 5-0 before the first slip up against Georgia Tech in Atlanta. They handled a down FSU team and only lost to SMU by a point. They bounced back against middle-of-the-pack ACC teams and finished it off with a last-second hail mary win over Wake in the finale. Things seemed to break their way, but were the nine wins fully deserved? Our deserved wins (dWIN) metric says 'not quite’ with a 7.8 total. They were simply overmatched in their two toughest games, giving up 50+ points to losses at Miami and against Ole Miss in the bowl game.
||||||| POSITION GROUP CHECK-INS
OFFENSE: Jonathan Brewer’s first offense here was led by Maalik Murphy, the transfer from Texas. He was really good, but the offense as a whole struggled to find much sustained success. The primary reason for that was that they were one-dimensional, struggling to succeed in the running game. They averaged just under 93 yards per game (ranked 128th in FBS) on the ground and just 3.2 per carry (127th). That’s slightly concerning considering the talent numbers for the offensive line were in the mid-50s, and they had talent at running back, despite some injuries at the top of the depth chart. Murphy’s passing performance on the surface was impressive as the Blue Devils managed 244.3 yards per game (44th), but that was driven by volume more than effectiveness. He threw it 423 times, but is a pure pocket passer and didn’t provide much of a threat to tuck-and-run either. Defenses could sit back and keep it all in front of them, while the offensive line did a very good job of keeping him upright, allowing just 12 sacks in all of those pass attempts, ranked 7th. Finally, they were just downright bad on third down, converting just 29.6% of them (130th), a metric we often see with those one-dimensional offenses. Murphy transferred to Oregon State for some reason, but the collective came together to get Tulane’s Darian Mensah to take over. Mensah is much more of a dual-threat style player who should open things up more in 2025.
||| QB
Maalik Murphy was good but didn’t provide much of a threat in the running game. He compiled numbers with lots of throws, but the offense struggled as a whole. He moves on to Oregon State, and they are able to lure Tulane transfer Darian Mensah, who brings a different style to the table. He should give opponents more to think about, and we should see a more open attack here.
||| RB
This was supposed to be the Jaquez Moore show, but a lingering leg injury slowed his progress and allowed Star Thomas to become the featured back. When Moore returned to health, it remained Thomas, who did the most he could with a rough situation. The per carry yardage was not impressive, but he was productive. He transfers out to Tennessee for 2025, as Moore returns and backup Peyton Jones. They will now battle with App State transfer Anderson Castle for carries in this backfield.
||| WR
Jordan Moore and Eli Pancol combined as the 1-2, and both had similarly solid seasons with good numbers, despite different ways of going about it. They’ll need to replace those combined 190 targets as both move on. Sahmir Hagans (outside) and Que’Sean Brown (slot) chipped in nicely and will increase their roles. They hit the portal to bring in Andrel Anthony from OU, who just needs to stay healthy. Cooper Barkate is a transfer from Harvard who put up big numbers and will look to earn a role.
||| TE
Nicky Dalmolin was the lead here, but he was limited to six games and has run out of eligibility. Jake Taylor played in his stead but didn’t do much in either facet of the game - receiving or blocking. They haven’t addressed this position in the portal yet, so the hope is that Taylor and fellow redshirt sophomore Jeremiah Hasley are taking significant steps up into the roles.
||| OL
The starters here were good and plus-plus in pass blocking schemes, which is good because they did a lot of throwing from the pocket. They are not very deep beyond those starters. The run game struggled, though, and LT Bruno Fina started and played a full-time role after coming in from UCLA, but the player-level data suggests he struggled at a key position. Four of five starters return, including Fina, and if they can become a bit more versatile (and stay healthy), this will be one of the better units in the ACC.
DEFENSE: The Manny Diaz effect took form right away here as this defense was led by Jonathan Patke but heavily influenced by the head coach. They simply got in the backfield with regularity. Their 116 tackles-for-loss and 43 sacks were top-five in all of FBS football. They also shut down the pass for the most part, with the 8th-ranked most talented pass defense talent level, according to our numbers. They made stops on third down, and had they not given up a few too many big plays, it could have been even better. The warts include the complete letdown in two games which they played top offenses — giving up 50+ points to Miami (FL) and Ole Miss. Those are two of the top offenses in the game, but the Devils looked nearly helpless against them. Looking forward to 2025, they will lose some key players, but it’s not a complete rebuild. They are retaining players and strategically added one big portal pick-up with S Caleb Weaver coming in from Sam Houston. This should remain fun to watch as they pin their ears back and put pressure on opposing offenses. That should not change despite some new faces, primarily from within.
||| DL
While lacking a true ‘star’ player, this was a deep group with everyone in the rotation contributing. Offensive lines couldn’t key on one player, which was a driving force. Wesley Williams was the best of the group, getting up to nine sacks, but three others had 5+ sacks themselves in even less playing time. They lose two of those as Michael Reese and Ryan Smith move on. Bryce Davis is a 4-star recruit in this class and may play a role immediately. They will promote from within and continue to be relentless with this unit.
||| LB
Ozzie Nicholas was the leader of this defense in the middle. While the others got to the quarterback, he stayed home and stuffed the run very effectively. He will be missed, as will Alex Howard, who racked up nine sacks from the edge. Tre Freeman and Kendall Johnson return and will need to step up. Nick Morris Jr. was hurt in week one and will return to a big role to help replace Nicholas. This group will be just fine.
||| DB
Chandler Rivers and Terry Moore developed into stars for this secondary. Rivers never left the field, and Diaz was able to keep him around for his final year. Moore also returns, setting the stage for a talented veteran-led group. They lose a bit of depth behind them, but Kimari Robinson appears ready to step into the No. 2 cornerback role, and DaShawn Stone received valuable playing time at safety. Big-time portal pickup Caleb Weaver makes it even better. This is a top unit in the ACC.
SPECIAL TEAMS: A solid group of specialists here with place kicker Todd Pelino a solid presence. Kade Reynoldson handled the punting duties as a true freshman and did alright. Both return. Most of the kick/punt returners will also return to their roles, led by Peyton Jones (kickoff) and Que’Sean Brown (punts). Both performed just fine but were not explosive.
Reader feedback is requested and encouraged! Who knows these teams better than their passionate fan bases? We don’t pretend to know it all and would love your feedback. We will update/edit based (and credit) for anything that is brought to our attention. Let’s do this together…
|||||| TRANSFER PORTAL TRACKER
Diaz’ approach to the portal is a pointed, strategic one and it’s clear to see that while he loses his quarterback via the portal, he rallied the collective and got in one to replace and even potentially upgrade at that key position. Getting Caleb Weaver in from Sam Houston was another big pickup for the secondary as a hybrid LB/DB coming in. WR Andrel Anthony is a high-upside play from Oklahoma, who just needs to stay healthy and could eventually become a star at the position. Only losing eight players in this landscape is awfully impressive.
Below is a screen shot of the full, live Transfer Portal Tracker over at CFBDepth.com. Click the image or the button below to view it in its entirety…
|||||| 2025 RECRUITING CLASS
The ranking is driven more by volume, but the more volume you bring in, the better the chances you ‘hit’ on a few and should be considered in final cumulative rankings. This comes in as a top-20 class, led by three 4-stars from the region. Unsurprisingly, the lean was on the defensive side and if they can continue to bring in even under-hyped players on that side of the ball, this staff can mold them into something special. This appears to be a big win for his first full class.
Here is a snapshot of the 2025 Recruiting Class+ with a link to the live page with updates throughout the cycle:
|||||| 2025 SCHEDULE LOOK AHEAD
This is a very similar schedule based on the early SOS+ numbers. They do add Clemson, but Miami drops off. The trade of Northwestern for Illinois is a bit tougher, but that game will be in Durham in week two. We’ll learn a lot about this team early. The subsequent trip to New Orleans for Tulane will certainly be no cakewalk and a homecoming of sorts for Mensah. They also drop SMU from the ACC slate, getting Virginia instead. Again, all of this appears to even itself out in the end.
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